Jordan Might Not Want Confederation with Palestinians, and Might Not Survive It

In his thoughtful essay on the future of the two-state solution, Elliott Abrams makes three connected points: first, that Israel should consider the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank unacceptable; second, that such a state will never come into being; and third, that it would be far better to establish an autonomous Palestinian entity in confederation with Jordan. I agree wholeheartedly with the first claim (for exactly the reasons Abrams sets forth), have some quibbles with the second, and have serious reservations about the third.

I’ll begin with the quibbles. Abrams declares, “Those who pay closest attention, and have for decades, know the two-state solution is not going to happen.” But I would caution against being too certain. Many on the Israeli right simultaneously underestimate the Democratic party’s political will to try to impose a Palestinian state on Israel, and overestimate the determination of the Israeli center-left and the so-called “statesmanlike” (i.e., anti-Netanyahu) center-right to withstand such pressure. Most Israelis indeed oppose the two-state solution today, but due to the nature of coalition politics, governments routinely implement deeply unpopular policies.

According to a recent survey, only around 20 percent of Israelis support the two-state solution, but other surveys show much higher support when a Palestinian state is presented as the price of a comprehensive regional deal that includes normalization with Saudi Arabia. So, despite superficial appearances, there remains a large constituency in Israel that doesn’t find the idea of a Palestinian state entirely intolerable, and we should expect that a future center-left coalition, even one that includes center-right or haredi parties, will be dragged in this direction, especially under intense pressure from a Democratic administration in the White House. Note also the frequency with which talking heads on Israeli legacy media (many of whom once held senior positions in the IDF or intelligence agencies) speak of ending the war with Hamas with a “political arrangement” (hesder m’dini)—a euphemism for the two-state solution.