The Collapse of the Shiite Islamic Republic Could Galvanize Sunni Islamists

Over the past few weeks, Iranian skies have become the domain of American and Israeli aircraft. The U.S. and Israel have carried out thousands of strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran, targeting its ballistic-missile capabilities, nuclear facilities, and bastions of domestic oppression. Though these strikes have been immensely successful, the strategic impact of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war remains unclear.

Hussein Aboubakr Mansour’s essay “After the Ayatollah” provides an excellent analysis of the current strategic situation of the war. More importantly, Mansour predicts that the war will permanently change the political and ideological landscape of the Middle East. In his words: “Khamenei is dead. The Islamic Republic is over. The utopian vision of political Islam is largely no more.”

Mansour contends that the Islamic Republic has acted as a “loadbearing wall” for the Islamist vision of Islamic governance. It proved to Muslims throughout the region that an Islamist state was not only possible but could become a major power able to shape regional geopolitics. Now that its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, is dead, and Iran’s capabilities and prestige have suffered what appears to be irreparable damage, Mansour argues that this “wall” will collapse and Islamism will lose its claim to political viability.